Can Weather Forecasters Formulate Reliable Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperatures?1
نویسندگان
چکیده
During the past ten years, many sets of subjective probability forecasts have been formulated on an operational or experimental basis by weather forecasters. In this paper we examine some forecasts prepared recently by National Weather Service forecasters. Samples of precipitation probability forecasts represent an operational program, while samples of probability foreclISts of temperature represent an experimental program, An analysis of these forecasts indicates that weather forecasters can and do formulate reliable probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature.
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